• Cape Cod House Watch

2013 Hurricane Forecast and the Nauset Management Conditions link

NOAA is hardly alone in predicting an active Atlantic hurricane season for 2013. The official start of the season was June first and all signs seem to indicate an uptick from normal seasonal averages which consist of 12 named storms 6 of which are categorized as hurricanes while 3 meet the major hurricane criteria. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center claims that there is “a 70% likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms [winds of 39 mph or higher], of which 7-11 could become hurricanes [winds of 74 mph or higher], including 3-6 major hurricanes [category 3, 4 or 5’ winds of 111 mph or higher].

For those unfamiliar with Nauset Management, I have made it a longstanding policy to never market from a perspective of fear as its irresponsible at best. In turn, the conditions link is designed to provide real time-status reports of actual conditions as they exists verses how they may be skewed or stretched by regional or national outlets. To digress, this winter, news outlets in Boston claimed blizzard conditions on the Cape. In actuality, a portion of Falmouth reached the necessary requirements for a period of time. In short, the conditions link is designed to confirm or refute what often times turns out to be sensationalism. During the above storm, constant coverage slowly wound down to an endless loop of a waterfront home teetering on edge out on Plum Island. As a direct result of the conditions link, we received one call of concern from a customer who was out of the country and without an internet connection. Each home owner is provided with a unique identification number which allows us to identify a property on line, as needed, without telling the world their home is vacant. This number system is used primarily to indicate power status as any issues left of center are conveyed directly to the owner in real time.

Andrea, the first named storm of the season, was dubbed a post-tropical cyclone when it made landfall. In our corner of the world, we saw heavier rain the previous week. That said, severe weather is never taken lightly but by the same token, it is critically important to temper and isolate conditions as they exist.

It doesn’t take a tremendous amount of leg work to find exhaustive lists of hurricane preparedness checklists. I’ve seen lists that include loading up on bug repellent, water, flashlights, batteries… and while these may be helpful common sense items, there is no exhaustive list for preventative measures beyond boarding up windows and stowing outdoor items because quite frankly, that is the extent of what reasonable measures are available to curtail presumed damage.

With Andrea in the books, we can take one named storm off the list and move forward.

Best,

Jon