Monday – 9/18/17 – 12:18 p.m. - A Tropical Storm Warning has been posted and the big change here is timing which is to say that conditions will most likely occur within a 36-hour window verses the 48-hour window which defines the typical Watch. Not unlike the week 1 Patriots run game, the latest track shows our being bumped on the edge before a reverse in course takes place. Beyond that, little has changed in regards to the balance of details as sustained winds upwards of 40 mph are expected with gusts currently projected to blow in the 55-mph range. The effort to stow potential UFO’s is an ongoing one and I would like to clarify that this process/supporting service, is a quick and dirty proactive one. I have received a couple of very detailed storage protocols that lean more toward something you might overhear Captain Stubing relaying to Gopher on the Lido deck rather than what may occur on our little scratch of land. I will circle back mid-day Tuesday.
Sunday – 9/17/17 – 6:47 p.m. - It should be less of a surprise to know that a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. These conditions are all but identical to a typical Nor’ Easter though not always as agreeable when it comes to shoveling. One similar attribute is that the conditions are speculated to occur within 48 hours the initial heads up. I’ve been filing and fulfilling requests for most of the day in regards to herding, chairs, grills and the occasional yard gnome and again, if anyone has any concerns, letting me know sooner rather than waiting on your local weather editor to start breathing into a paper bag is best. Locals would suggest that it’s going to get wicked windy and while I don’t suspect we’ll have too many professional weather scouts standing on jetties compelling mere mortals to stay indoors, if there’s anything I can do from a proactive position it would certainly dovetail with my passion for drama free days.
Sunday – 9/17/17 – 10:48 a.m. - It should be little secret that I have long considered that meteorology in and of itself resides in a cone of uncertainty; a guessing game further hampered in these parts by fickle jet streams as well as ocean and bay effects. Among the many roles I play, breaking out Tarot cards and matching wits with any number of weather models is not one of them. Ahead of what, if anything, the outskirts of Jose may have to offer, I wanted to reach out and make sure that anyone with known hatches that may be in need of battening end up on my radar sooner than later. As advertised, Jose may bend some branches but in terms of wind speed, even a tropical storm force breeze tops out at a maximum sustained 39 mph; a number not foreign to these parts in a garden variety winter. With that said, if anyone has any concerns, particularly regarding any loose outdoor items, please let me know at your earliest convenience.
Wednesday – 9/6/17 – 2:17 p.m. - In retrospect, I probably would have kept this one under my hat and waited to see how things developed before breaking out the ink well but again, given the last round and a handful of inquiries, I wanted to keep everyone in the know. Up until noon we had an epic battle between sun and clouds and shortly thereafter it was all but dusk and calm to the extent that you could have walked around outside with a lit candle. Thus far, the weather track is straddling the elbow of the Cape and focusing its attention on the mid and upper Cape and picking up the tip having moved across the bay with a bit of steam behind it. Beyond a couple sporadic bursts of heavy rain and the passing rumble of thunder, we’re currently in the eye of a fantastic napping afternoon. Recent reports show Flood Warnings in the mid and outer Cape areas over the next two hours and going forward, there is a trail of hit or miss pockets of heavy rain that look to continue on a NE track. Comparatively speaking, so far, we’re grinding through a bad beach day and unless or until conditions become noteworthy, we’ll close the book with this transmission.
Tuesday – 9/5/17 – 4:16 p.m. - Though hardly compelled to start gathering animals two-by-two such as a few weeks back but I, like many, have received the dreaded Flash Flood Watch memo. While I always launch a yarn whenever a watch or warning of any shape or size is issued, the flash flood rarely made the cut but rather disappeared into obscurity like a side of seasonal vegetables flanked by a lobster and great cut of beef. In an area where a flock of seagulls colliding with a tidal moon will most often trigger a Flood Watch, I understand, having spent a few days straight soaking wet courtesy of the last round in the pursuit of tending my flock, that water is front of mind. A Flash Flood Watch simply means that conditions may pool their resources and create a flash flood. I've been on a Powerball Winner Watch for several years now. Thunderstorms, garden variety as well as the scattered version, are on tap for most of the 24-hour watch window which runs from Wednesday at 6 a.m. through Thursday at 6 a.m.... Going back as far as a month, this event would have ended up on the cutting room floor if acknowledged at all but again, I understand that Mother Nature has been busy the past couple of weeks and after a few inquiries, it only seemed right to kick off the conditions link early this season. While no doubt a wait and see affair, if you agree to wait, I'll let everyone know what I see.
Sunday – 3/19/17 – 8:11 a.m. - The winds are blowing but in terms of snow, there is little doubt that a bit of flake news is in play as nary a patch exists. There are a handful of outages in Wellfleet and for those doomsday voyeurs, there are in fact several hours left on the High Wind Warning window though I’m beginning to wonder whether the weather syndicate is on a seasonal quota schedule. As always, I don’t write the music, I just play in the band. Until next time.
Sunday – 3/19/17 – 10:12 a.m. - As I may have mentioned once or twice over the years, the Indian Rain Dance never failed because they never stopped dancing until it rained and with that, I give you the same forecast yet pushed out until 2 a.m. Monday. We have a light to moderate snow falling that is barely providing a coating and as I’m halfway through saying goodbye to a dozen 9 year old girls on the backend of a birthday/slumber party, I can assure everyone that there is no property that I cannot access. The prophets are claiming that our end of the island is on tap for the bulk of what is assumed to arrive and presently that appears to be 5” – 6” of heavy snow by early evening under the guise of a Winter Advisory. The Winter Storm has morphed into a Gale and the Wind Warning stands although adjusted to end at 2 a.m…. Should heavy snow and wind finally get together and kick off outages, our present temperatures in the middle 30’s look to climb into the low 40’s and hold steady through late Monday night when the slow decline begins. I’ll send a follow up early evening but thus far scrubbing Taylor Swift from my consciousness is far more of a concern than what Mother Nature has going on.
Saturday – 3/18/17 – 8:44 a.m. - Three maybes are on tap for the balance of the weekend beginning with a loose commitment to a Winter Storm coming in the form of a Watch which goes into effect at 8 p.m. this evening and runs through 8 p.m. Sunday. Given our proximity to the ocean, we can drop the Winter and exchange mph for knots and take note of the resulting Storm Watch with a window of 2 a.m. Sunday through 8 p.m. Sunday evening. Swirling around all this speculation is a High Wind Watch which kicks off at 5 a.m. Sunday and closing out along with its cohorts at 8 p.m. Sunday. Despite all these bells and flashing lights, temperatures look to hover in the mid to upper 30’s with a 5% chance of precipitation through early morning Sunday when a rain/snow mix begins around dawn. The highest probability/guess of precipitation is scheduled to begin mid-morning at which time we’ll see what the Magic Eight Ball and dash of reality has to say.
Tuesday – 3/14/17 – 6:02 p.m. - I’ve yet to hear the official gust number from the little guy that gets on the ladder in the middle of the runway in Hyannis for maximum effect but it did blow pretty good shortly after 3 p.m. and began breaking up just before 5. In its wake, some lights flickered and the current board shows 71 outages which will kick off follow ups. The current temperature is 46 and looks to fall to the freezing mark early tomorrow morning.
Tuesday – 3/14/17 – 10:51 a.m. - …fickle mistress indeed. We’ve seen the winds pick up over the past couple of hours and what began as sleet with a few drops of precipitation straining in vain to turn into flakes has become a steady diet of rain which looks to persist as temperatures look to remain in the mid to upper 30’s. Wind remains the unknown and primary issue though the upside is that the before mentioned rain has liberated limbs and lines from any lingering snow from our previous dusting. The snow/rain line is moving toward the bridge with all the speed of Memorial Day traffic and for these parts, most weather editors have ceased breathing into paper bags and feathered back storm crisis staffs to 6 person skeleton crews while focusing their resources on rocking boats moored in south shore harbors. Ours is a wind issue and with that there is always the potential for power outages though forecasted gusts are no greater than any other calamity we’ve endured this season. I will circle back early evening on the back side of the expiring myriad of warnings, watches and newcomer, “pre-weather alert.”
Monday – 3/13/17 – 2:03 p.m. - No doubt everyone has seen the fire sales on powder milk and Saltines given tomorrow’s weather. Currently, we have a High Wind warning in effect from 8 a.m. – 6 p.m. Tuesday with winds ranging from 30 – 40 mph with gusts projected to be upwards of 70 mph. By extension, a Coastal Flood Warning is posted and in effect from 11 a.m. – 3 p.m. Tuesday dovetailing with the tides. A Winter Storm Watch is also in effect in conjunction with a Storm Warning. By pulling “winter” out of the equation, the Storm Warning, laden with projections in terms of knots, speaks to conditions over the water while a Winter Storm Watch speaks primarily to what is happening on land where most of us are. In either event, more individual watches and warnings can only help ratchet up the hysteria as we wait on a final determination regarding the looming sun burn index. While wind is always an issue, current tracks show the lion’s share of snow curling onshore south of our coordinates and dumping larger deposits of snow further inland. The popular consensus shows 4” – 8” of snow falling ahead of a change over to rain late Tuesday afternoon the latter of which is supported by forecasted temperatures ranging in the mid to upper 30’s. That said, the ocean effect variable is always a fickle mistress teeing this round up as a genuine wait and see storm; and we will do just that with a follow up mid-day Tuesday.
Friday – 3/10/17 – 6:48 p.m. - Save for my unwavering commitment to responding to any Warning, I’m not so certain this round would have made the cut otherwise as a rather uneventful 7” of snow has fallen throughout the day settling in typical Norman Rockwell fashion. Scattered flurries look to phase out mid evening as temperatures drop off to lows in the single digits for the balance of the weekend. Magic Eight balls are leaning toward a substantial storm moving in on Tuesday though in terms of timing we’re speaking in dog years so we’ll see how that sets up on Monday if at all.
Friday – 3/9/17 – 6:02 a.m. - Regardless of which way your celebrity rodent or mollusk may have leaned in regards to the alleged end of Winter, it won’t be tomorrow. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 1 a.m. to 4 p.m. Friday. As ominous as that may sound, the framework for warning status assumes snow accumulations of 6” of snow within 12 hours or 8” within 24”. The current crystal ball shows the bulk of heavy snow falling around the morning commute and tapering off towards afternoon. Within the 14-hour window, wind speeds look to remain in the single digits while temperatures hold steady in the low 30’s. Reading ahead, the weekend promises temperatures that struggle to get out of the teens as winds pick up making the pending warning window the pick of the three day stretch. Unless the actual conditions go off script, I will plan on a follow up at the end of business Friday.
Monday – 2/13/17 – 3:57 p.m. - Sentiment confirmed. We’ve seen flurries and swirling snow throughout the day and while winds are gusting, perhaps strongest in the last hour, they simply haven’t delivered as advertised although a High Wind Warning remains in place until 7 p.m... That said, I’m comfortable closing the book on this round as we wrap up the end run of a just another snow storm. Until next time…
Monday – 2/13/17 – 6:33 a.m. - If it were 1820 I would tell you that the today’s inclement weather is right on top of us but now we call that area Maine. Currently we have intermittent spitting snow as a wind advisory is in effect throughout the balance of the day. Bands of heavy ocean effect are expected to be hit or miss heading into this afternoon though overall totals are leaning towards 1” – 3” by day’s end. While a sloppy day to be certain, all signs are pointing to just that. It’s business as usual across the board and I will plan on confirming that sentiment mid-afternoon.
Sunday – 2/12/17 – 2:26 p.m. - For those that heard the local grumblings, the good news is that today’s rain and mild temperatures have all but done away with the deplorable road conditions on Main St, particularly on the E Orleans side of the tracks. As the few that weathered the last round might attest, anyone having the nerve to drive faster than 10 mph was left to feel as though they were in the lead wagon of the Oklahoma land rush where the driver was promised an extra half acre for every rock and rut hit along the way. No sooner had a lost a filling and determined to start a Go Fund Me page or take point on a bake sale so that the town’s assumed plow force might upgrade from the assumed Prius Wagon with two plastic Christmas Tree Shop snow shovels duct taped to the front bumper, I was informed that, inexplicably, the roads were never treated ahead of the last bout of weather. Moving on… We are currently under a Blizzard Watch and the shift to a warning looks to be based on when the transition to snow occurs and how long it may last. To satisfy Blizzard conditions, Mother Nature needs to produce considerable falling and/or blowing snow with sustained winds or frequent gusts over 35 mph with visibility below a quarter mile for at least three hours. There is no shortage of wind in the forecast as the highest projections currently call for 30 – 40 mph winds with gusts touching the mid 60’s though alternate sources carve about 10 mph of either end of that range. On the snow front, we’re on the short end of the stick where anywhere from 1” – 3” to 4” – 6” is expected. Current temperatures in the upper 30’s are slated to actually climb into the low 40s by midnight before returning to the middle 30’s by morning where converging fronts look to create wind chills in the upper 20’s that should prompt the transition to snow. Despite less snow bending boughs and suspect boughs having been cleared out by Thursday’s storm, sporadic outages may still be in the cards though temperatures on the back end of tomorrow’s winds are forecasted to be more forgiving should any outages occur. In addition, the wind window runs from 5 a.m. through 7 p.m.; coupled with diminished snow totals, power crews should find conditions far more favorable this go around. Until tomorrow…
Saturday – 2/11/17 – 9:46 a.m. - …and we’re back. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued and begins Sunday morning at 7 a.m. and runs through 7 p.m. Monday evening. Not unlike the first round, we look to begin with temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s along with a steady diet of rain heading into Monday when winds from Thursday’s playbook, 25 – 35 mph gusting upwards of 50 – 55, look to qualify the area as having reached blizzard conditions. Current projections pin the changeover to snow to Monday morning where anywhere from 4” – 8” of total accumulation is expected. With all the makings of our most recent bout of weather, I’m inclined to keep the spam and powdered milk in the storm cellar and plan on rebooting gizmos and gadgets on Tuesday but with first things being first, I will post an update early tomorrow evening should conditions change.
Friday – 2/10/17 – 6:52 a.m. - The sun did in fact show up this morning and is working feverishly to convince kids that the bus will also be making an appearance. Storm follow ups will continue as we’re down to a handful of collective/overall outages on the lower Cape. Current temperatures in the teens look to climb into the mid 20’s with wind chills registering as half as much. Milder temperatures and a round of rain should clean the slate over the weekend as Monday promises another round of snowfall. Any issues encountered going forward will be addressed directly though nothing left of center is expected. I appreciate everyone’s patience and will certainly stay on top of the sequel as it unfolds.
Thursday – 2/9/17 – 7:36 p.m. - The heaviest winds tapered off notably shortly after 5 p.m. and the system moved off shore shortly thereafter though winds look to continue to blow in the mid 25 – 30 mph range over the next several hours with gusts in the low to mid 40’s. In terms of snow totals, I would be comfortable saying 7” – 9” of heavy snow which has contributed to significant power outages on the upper and mid Cape while albeit comparatively smaller numbers in our area which will of course trigger storm follow ups in spite of the board showing zero outages. I have received two direct reports from Nauset Management customers regarding known outages and those properties will be addressed this evening. I will follow up periodically as any additions to the outage board and/or specific houses are cleared so that we might settle in for the next round on Sunday. Last, 774-216-1718 is the emergency line which is a simple call and answer flip phone affair which sends text messages into a black hole. If anyone has general outage information or a garden variety inquiry, please email, call or text 774-353-8668.
Thursday – 2/9/17 – 12:17 p.m. - Although Chicken Little has taken on more of a Paddington Bear persona since the Warning window kicked off at 9 a.m., winds have begun to kick up as a steady rain is falling. Armed with pocket defibrillators and paper bags, heads of extreme weather centers are still imploring millions to hide in bathtubs and hold kids back a year rather than return to school this year as we are assured to be pounded, battered, crushed and hammered by a Monster and newcomer to the weather cliché manifesto, Winter Whiplash the latter of which had me perplexed most of the morning until an increasing neck pain attributed to my constant head shaking revealed the assumed meaning. The current temperature is 39 and falling with the bulk of precipitation now looking to arrive late this afternoon – early evening when the otherwise fast moving system remains poised to deposit “inches of snow per hour.” Speculation still swirls around 14” of accumulation; a total which has already be dealt with this year. That said, several sources adhering to this total are also proclaiming this storm to be “the worst we’ve seen since 2015” which some might recall was way back when we were trying to manipulate rabbit ears with a roll of economy tin foil in order to catch the back end of a Bruins game on channel 38. While there is little doubt that the wind will in fact blow and snow will eventually arrive, they will do so under conditions that are no stranger to the area. Given the timing of the revised storm peak, I will plan on a follow up around 8 p.m.
Wednesday – 2/8/17 – 5:01 p.m. - ...and what could be cooler than a Winter Storm Warning? A Blizzard Warning. The threshold for blizzard conditions include suspected and frequent gusts of 35 mph and by extension and in conjunction with considerable falling and blowing snow. Along with the 10-mph median wind adjustment, a gutsy additional 2” snowfall projection turning 6” - 12” to 8” - 14” is on tap. In native terms, it looks like it may snow and blow wicked hahd. While we’ll certainly know when it gets here, the last round called for 22” and left about half as much. In several cases, this was a tough sell to some as various plow contractors looking to manufacture business as well as a few neighbors armed with time and a phone between the blinds produced pictures that appeared as though various houses were perched on the summit of Everest. In virtually each case, the conditions were a byproduct of drifting and/or plow berms. In many instances, it is quite common to walk from knee deep to a dusting of snow in a matter of steps during swirling winds. While I take great pleasure in tamping down the shameful hysteria often conjured up, increasingly so in no small part to naming every puff of wind, by the weather editors, this outlet is designed to convey actual conditions and you will always be in the know whether I'm knee deep in it or under my bed. Tomorrow morning may in fact begin with rain which looks to change over around 9 a.m. with peak conditions, 2” - 3” per hour, occurring mid to late afternoon. Again, if anyone is on Cape or looking to make a run for it and uses natural or propane gas, keep an eye on the exhaust. If you can't find it or won't find it, by all means call. I will circle back midafternoon as indicated earlier though I did want to make everyone aware of the adjustments.
Wednesday – 2/8/17 – 5:58 a.m. - While I call it a snow storm, a Winter Storm Warning just seems cooler and with that, we have one in effect from 6 a.m. Thursday through midnight. Current temperatures are hovering around 50 and will slowly fall throughout the day and do not appear to reach the middle 30-degree range until tomorrow morning which has some weather celebs leaning towards a mix before changing over to moderate and eventually heavy snow with winds in the 20 – 25 mph range complemented by gusts upwards of 45 – 50 mph. Temperatures look to settle into the mid 20 degree range by Thursday afternoon with wind chills flirting with single digits. Shifting these conditions from land to sea finds us under a Gale Warning from 9 a.m. Thursday through 7 a.m. Friday for you seal seekers or home owner trying to track down your painter. Virtually every parameter of this projected snow storm falls short of the last round so I don’t expect any drama. Once again, unless we have an oil truck deva in need of a clear path, please do not feel compelled to have your driveway plowed as liberating crushed shells from flower beds and replanting cobblestone aprons will surely cost more than tamping down garden variety snowfall. I will follow up midafternoon Thursday unless conditions change dramatically though it appears to be a slow start to a Cape Cod snow storm.
Tuesday – 1/24/17 – 8:48 a.m. - ...and just like that you'd be hard pressed to get a stunt kite off the ground. While the seas remain as agreeable as grocery shopping on 4th of July weekend, here on, albeit wet, land, winds have diminished to a whisper. Currently, we're enjoying a balmy 51 degrees and should see hit and miss rain at varying rates throughout the day while mild temperatures look to be on tap for the balance of the week. Zero damage, let alone evidence of strong winds, has been realized in the short sampling thus far and I do not expect any save for any growth that may have been on borrowed time. Going forward, any related issues will be addressed directly with individual owners.
Tuesday – 1/24/17 – 4:56 a.m. - Winds have picked up throughout the night and while the gust projections have been officially dialed back a tick it is indeed blowing. Peak winds and heavy rains are now scheduled to pass through at 7 a.m... A single power outage is on the board and the current temperature is 44 degrees.
Monday – 1/23/17 – 12:11 p.m. - Contrasted with the forecast, current conditions appear to be bit overblown. That said, there is nary a weather editor inclined to take the metaphorical stroll across the hall from the Extreme Weather Center to the actual weather set. In all practicality, the Warning window runs through 4 a.m. and winds have picked up a bit over the past hour. Throughout the morning we've seen intermittent showers interrupted with sporadic bursts of wet sloppy snow with temperatures in the mid 30's yet save for the issued warning, conditions thus far are not yet newsworthy.
Saturday – 1/21/2017 – 7:17 p.m. - A High Wind Warning is in effect from 9 a.m. Monday through 4 a.m. Tuesday where sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph may be outdone with gusts upwards of 65. While certainly a wait and see, anyone who may be on the Cape this weekend and have unbattoned hatches, take heed ahead of your departure. Temperatures look to fluctuate between the mid 30’s and 40’s throughout the warning window and into mid-week which is welcome news should forecasted winds disrupt power. I will follow up mid-day Monday regardless of which way the winds blow.
Sunday – 1/8/2017 – 8:09 a.m. - As Storm Center windbreakers go back in the closet and newsrooms send home the additional 12 personnel apparently required to discuss snowfall, so goes the first snowfall of 2017. Based on a ruler rather than the garden variety male perception of weights and measures, 12” of total accumulation appears to be most accurate consensus. The 3” – 4” picked up since the previous transmission was far lighter under colder conditions and should make for easier shoveling, sledding and/or watching under a current gray yet sun split sky. Until next time…
Saturday – 1/7/17 – 6:41 p.m. - Should we flip the off switch now, the plow count metric would be spot on. That said, with winds picking up, albeit slightly, it’s difficult to gauge with any certainty which end of the 6” – 8” total accumulation range we’re at. Working through the halfway point of the warning window, conditions continue to lean heavily towards the wonderland verses end of days side of the coin although mentors of weather editors continue to scramble to find hazardous conditions in perilous locations in two wheel drive vehicles while emphasizing at nauseam the need for mere mortals to stay off the roadways. There are and have been zero power outages on the board Cape wide and the winds thus far are less than advertised. The system looks to move off shore in and around the 1 a.m. mark and should the offerings remain consistent, we may top out at the 12” – 14” mark. A couple words of caution for those on Cape or in route beyond the insightful weather editor contribution “take it slow.” The first would include noting winds chills dipping to zero and perhaps a tick below as we head into Sunday morning. Second, anyone with a natural or propane fuel source should be mindful of snow drifts on or around vents. I’ll touch base in the morning in hopes of putting this one in the books.
Saturday – 1/7/17 – 10:28 a.m. - When I was a mere sprout, my grandfather, a then retired Coast Guard Chief and Chatham Harbormaster, once told me that whenever seagulls were seen inland, it meant that a storm was moving in off the water or that the dump was closed. Close to a decade ago, a pair of swans began to routinely take up residence in Town Cove prior to a notable storm. Through general observation in the day-to-day routine of my craft, one inch of snow may be assumed per truck with a plow blade parked in a liquor store lot 2-4 hours ahead of a projected snowfall. The birds have checked in and the plow count is calling for 8” despite our Winter Warning having been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning which is in effect and scheduled to expire at 3 a.m. Sunday. The plow shortfall is also in conflict with the now projected 15” – 20” of anticipated accumulation. As mentioned yesterday, the winds projections are significantly less than what we’ve seen in recent weeks making the balance of the forecast more of a nuisance or wonderland depending on how you look at your cup. I’ve received several inquiries regarding plow service and as always, never feel compelled to plow on my account. Should access be required for fuel delivery or sub contract access it will be dealt with case-by-case and in the event of any unanticipated/immediate need, I will most certainly coordinate the necessary resources. Big electric has done a remarkable job in recent years in regards to a proactive approach to pruning. In addition, the response to outages has been most improved in terms of response and timely resolution. In spite of the snow projections, the forecast and projected winds don’t necessarily point to widespread outages. That said, anyone that has received notice of an outage or low temperature alert is encouraged to email that information to me as soon as it is available. Current conditions consist of a fine snowfall pushed around by winds in the middle teens. Stay tuned.
Friday – 1/6/17 – 4:12 p.m. - A Winter Weather Watch is in effect from 7 a.m. Saturday – 4 a.m. Sunday during which time accumulations of 8” – 12,” or 12” – 16” depending where you look, of snow is expected to top the +/- 3” totals picked up earlier today. Winds look to range between 20 and 30 mph with gusts topping out at 40 as temperatures are forecasted to run between the mid 20’s and 30’s. Not to be outdone, a Gale Warning is in effect from 4 p.m. Saturday – 1 a.m. Sunday should anyone be on the Cape and planning on a discounted seal tour. That said, I would load up on Spam only if you enjoy it and not as a bunker staple; previous events in recent weeks have already prompted everyone’s hatches to be sufficiently battened and we have endured almost double the wind projections. I will plan on a mid – late morning follow up though all indications point to a good day to shelve resolutions and burn through the balance of stocking stuffers and lingering holiday indulgences.
Thursday – 1/5/17 – 5:57 a.m. - As requested, I have received a number of emails claiming reports of cameras and any other number of devices as being down in the early hours of last evening. An isolated fire in an electrical panel at the Comcast office in Orleans resulted in power being cut by design until the issue was resolved. Outages as far as Truro had been reported. The earth should be back on it axis presently and I have little doubt that grief counseling will be available for the youngsters throughout the day today. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Friday and will be in effect from 1 a.m. – 11 a.m… Current accumulation projections range from 2” – 5” with a potential for sporadic flurries before and after the advisory window. Winds are forecasted in the 10 – 15 mph range with gusts upwards of 25 mph which should make this event the stuff of postcards and sonnets rather than a Spam and water purification tablet type system.
Thursday – 12/29/16 – 8:32 a.m. - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 7 p.m. this evening through 6 a.m. Friday while a Storm Warning is in effect from 7 p.m. this evening through noon tomorrow. A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds between 31 and 39 mph are expected with corresponding gusts between 46 & 57 mph. Leading the criteria for a Storm Warning is a change from mph to knots on the wind scale. On that score, anyone making the trek to the Cape via small water craft should either drive or stay in port until tomorrow afternoon. While the projected winds are slated to be tamer than the last round, the gust assumptions may cause scattered outages. Any precipitation should come in the form of rain as temperatures look to range from the mid 30’s to mid 40’s straight through a mostly sunny Friday afternoon. Should the prophecy stay on script, we’ll write this one off as a head’s up.
Friday – 12/16/16 – 5:56 a.m. - For anyone up and at em’ and getting a line wet ahead of this update, there is a Winter Storm Warning for Cape Cod Bay. There is little information available in regards to what happens if this system makes landfall or if its simply self-contained but this apparent mariner’s report stands until 7 a.m.. The High Wind Warning is also extended through 7 a.m... Usually by this time the most sensational wind gust is recorded in the middle of the runway at the Hyannis airport although it may be assumed that the network issued wind breakers are no match for single digit temperatures and sub-zero wind chills. That said, an unofficial report of 64 was reported out of Truro. The overnight winds blew as advertised and indeed persist and as someone that had to venture into that fray, I can attest that Jack Frost was punching rather than nipping. While there were zero reported power outages in Orleans, Eastham topped out at 255 early Thursday evening and while quickly remedied, this is where the today’s loop will start. What looked like a steady diet of rain on tap for Saturday and Sunday now appears to be kicking off with a Winter Weather Advisory which runs from 4 a.m. – noon on Saturday where 1” – 3” of snow may add a bit of nostalgia to the day for those diehard brick and mortar shoppers! I’m comfortable closing the book on this round yet will of course reach out directly should today’s appointed rounds reveal any issues.
Thursday – 12/15/16 – 5:04 p.m. - The current 22-degree mark is registering in the single digits on the feels like scale as winds are slowly building. While the 12-hour warning window remains in effect yet the projected top end gusts are now in the 40 – 58 mph range depending on where you look. If ever the prophets were right let it be now because 40 mph is a kid shaking out a blanket at the beach stacked up against 70. For the full snow globe experience, sporadic yet heavy snow squalls may reach white out conditions between 6 and 10 p.m. this evening if they occur at all. Temperatures look to bottom out in the teens by morning with wind chills forecasted in the -10 - -20-degree range. Needless to say, the potential for power outages is predicated exclusively on the extent of what the winds deliver or in Cape Cod speak, hard telling not knowing. As we wait and see I will follow up no later than first thing Friday morning and should a notable number of outages exists, no fee storm follow ups will begin immediately but let’s not put the sleigh in front of the reindeer just yet.
Thursday – 12/15/16 – 6:07 a.m. - And so it begins. If the high pressure of holiday to-do items has you feeling a bit frayed rejoice, there is a low-pressure system on the way. While current snow showers promise a dusting to an inch of accumulation this morning, a high wind warning is in effect from 5 p.m. this evening through 5 a.m. Friday where winds in the 30 – 40 mph range show a potential for gusts in the 60-70 mph range. Coupled with increasing winds throughout the day are plummeting temperatures that bottom out in the teens with wind chills touching subzero by 7 a.m. Friday. While winds diminish throughout the day on Friday, the biting cold does not appear to be as forgiving as temperatures look to find the 20-degree mark late Friday evening. I will plan on a follow up early this evening although there appears to be little wiggle room in regards to the current details and projections.
Thursday – 10/6/16 – 4:12 p.m. - Matthew’s track is now trending towards an abrupt U-turn at Wilmington. The category 1 that was squared up on our small scratch of sand earlier this week and scheduled to arrive on Sunday would have no doubt made a mess though the cat 4 that is now hours away from breaking an 11 year run of a hurricane free Florida is no doubt far more significant. For those with family, friends and/or property in the affected areas, very best wishes to you and yours.
Tuesday – 10/4/16 – 2:07 p.m. - Sunday is the current time stamp on when we should realize adverse weather in some form or fashion courtesy of Hurricane Matthew, currently moving slowly over Haiti. However uncertain tracks and timelines may be, I wanted to reach out ahead of the curve and make certain that any hatches in need of battening are taken care of. Going forward, I will plan on a follow up towards the end of the week.
Tuesday – 9/6/16 – 6:09 a.m. - While the playbook of scary terms and network windbreakers are begrudgingly returned to mothballs, the system, now 140 miles to our south, continues to breakdown and fragment showing less fortitude than the throngs of area mothers ushering kids to the bus stop for the first day of the new school year. As winds continue to diminish, high surf conditions appear to be the only remaining remnants on tap for the next 24 -36 hours so if anyone is looking for their painter or landscaper during that window, be sure to check your local beaches.
Monday – 9/5/16 – 4:48 p.m. - Winds in the mid to upper 20 mph range have made the off and on moderate rain appear a bit heavier at times and while the warning is scheduled to expire at 7:45, current conditions look to persist through later on this evening when the winds are presumed to diminish throughout the day Tuesday along with the sorely needed hit and miss showers. There have been small pockets of outages throughout the day and currently we look to be issue free. On the scientific end of the equation, two plastic Adirondack chairs stacked on my deck have maintained their original position throughout the event. I will close the weather loop Tuesday morning although all indications appear to lean towards the what we see is what we get formula.
Monday – 9/5/16 – 8:52 a.m. - A watch was upgraded to a warning last evening and in spite of remaining in warning status, the variables that prompted the change in designation have reverted back to where we started. While no doubt clear of the bipolar post tropical cyclone, the range of speculated forecasts are based on the overall reach of winds from the center of this system which remains +/- 300 miles offshore. Our current conditions are not all that different than yesterday save for the sun having been pushed out of the equation entirely. The winds remain in the 8-12 mph range and a light rain is expected shortly. The latest models show peak sustained winds in the upper 20 mph range occurring mid to late afternoon and holding steady through later on this evening where they look to diminish heading into early Tuesday.
Sunday – 9/4/16 – 02:36 p.m. - It may not deliver the end of days’ punch many had preached and yearned for yesterday but the now post tropical cyclone still sounds pretty cool. Approximately 325 miles off Ocean City MD, the system continues to track East North East before the go forward trend lends about as much clarity as a political platform. “The storm is expected to turn northeast before likely moving northward to northwestward through Monday. It's then expected to meander northeast, beginning to exit the Northeast US coast sometime Wednesday.” What has remained a constant is today having shaped up to be arguably one of the gems of 2016 to the extent that one regional weather prophet actually waxed apologetic earlier today for her contribution to the early exodus of vacationers. The sun continues to dominate the sky and winds are in the area of 8-12 mph with occasional gusts topping 15. The ENE track and an overall decreased speed of the system push the anticipated wind and rain out to early Monday morning. Sustained winds look to creep up to the 28 mph mark by dawn while previously indicated periods of “downpours” have been revised to “rain” where overall totals are now leaning towards 1”-2.” Wind gust forecasts range from 35 up to 50 mph depending on where you look and while terms such as dire and life threatening seem destine to go back into mothballs with the network affiliate windbreakers, we may see some nuisance limb damage and pockets of power issues. All requests for hatches to be battened are complete. Unless preempted by deteriorating conditions, I will plan on circling back early – mid morning Monday although all indications seem to be pointing towards that before mentioned mild Nor’ Easter model.
Saturday – 9/3/16 – 11:57 a.m. - A tropical storm watch is in effect for Cape Cod and the islands. For those new to the conditions link of Nauset Management, adverse weather conditions are ever taken lightly; however, I take immeasurable delight in tamping down the hysteria whipped up by weather editors, celebrities and even the handful of actual meteorologists still in existence. A tropical storm watch is issued when there is a reasonable chance for tropical storm winds occurring within the next 48 hours. Current projections are wildly vague in every conceivable category save for winds which are currently slated to sustain in the 20-30 mph range with gusts to 35. Not unlike a low grade N’Easter, winds in this area could certainly rearrange deck furniture but isn’t uncommon by any means. On the unknown end of the equation is careful speculation of the potential for tropical storm force winds. The criteria for this range is 58-73 mph range which will no doubt give most a jump start on pruning. Given the 48-hour window, details will develop quickly regardless of the actual outcome. Beyond wind, Sunday night throughout the day Monday look to be a complete washout. With that in mind, please touch base if you’ve left early or never made it and have loose items outdoors.
Sunday – 4/3/16 – 11:32 a.m. - They say that the Indian rain dance never failed because the Indians never stopped dancing until it rained. In that vein and on behalf of windbreaker clad weather preachers near and far, I give you an accurate forecast. Not only did the winds blow, albeit a tick south of projections, but the snow fell and for an hour or so, flakes as big as saucers swirled aimlessly appearing as if Mother Goose botched the dates on the MA State Fish and Game hunting schedule. There are no outages to report and while winds persist, to a diminishing degree, gray skies are beginning to lighten up over an inch of heavy snow.
Saturday – 4/2/16 – 3:46 p.m. - Mother Nature will be making a visit tomorrow as a high wind warning is in effect from 5 a.m. - 7 p.m.. Sustained winds in the area of 25 - 35 mph are on tap with gusts projected to top out in the 55 - 65 mph range. The current steady diet of rain looks to continue through early evening where a brief reprieve gives way to thunderstorms, due in no small part to a colder air mass colliding with political hot air, that appear to be hit or miss through sunrise. Sunday is also a wet one and although temperatures are forecasted to remain in the middle 30's, wind chills may bottom out just enough to kick up a bit of snow. Based on what I've seen over that past several hours, I'm not inclined to rule out a UV index of nine but wherever the roulette wheel decides to stop, you will be in the know mid day Sunday as the highest impacts are trending toward morning.
Monday – 3/21/16 – 9:44 a.m. - Shortly after the last transmission, the Winter Watch was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Rather than trot out another bulletin, in spite of this vital information, I made and executive decision to ride out the three hours of white knuckled unknown until the Warning was unceremoniously cancelled. Greeting the day were far more “yeah but[s]” and “well if[s]” among the weather celebrities, editors and the few unicorns remaining with an actual fancy book learnin’ background than there were flakes. Those light hit and miss flakes managing to survive at ground level are sharing space with large patches of exposed grass creating the look of one bad comb over. The day looks to remain wet and gray but I don’t believe it needs to be spent in the bunker.
Sunday – 3/20/16 – 9:02 a.m. - The dreaded Winter Storm Watch now begins at 5 p.m. today and runs through 11 a.m. Monday morning. Sunny skies tilt toward any number of shades of grey throughout the day while temperatures look to remain in the low to mid 30's making the now 2" - 4" projections of total accumulation somewhat suspect as a rain/sleet mix looks to flank both sides of midnight. With the chance of precipitation set at 100% by the morning commute, there's little doubt that the weather community may end up being all wet yet again this season.
Friday – 3/18/16 – 5:57 p.m. - We open Spring on Sunday with a Winter Storm Watch that the prophets are openly claiming to be wildly uncertain about perhaps based in no small part that it’s two days away and the actual system has yet to form. The wishy-washy Watch, seemingly predicated on a Magic 8 Ball, is up from mid day Sunday through Monday morning where the old reliable 4”-8” projection of total snow accumulation is being called into action. While less popular models bookend this forecast with significantly more snow on the top end and a rain/sleet mix on the bottom, I will plan on circling back Sunday morning when we should have a better indication as to whether or not those eggs slated for decoration may be better served as rationed provisions.
Friday – 3/4/16 – 4:51 p.m. - A manufactured three day weekend was foiled earlier today as motorcars somehow managed to maneuver through wet roadways while winds never found enough strength to bully the critical Evacuation Route signs dotted around the rotary. Perhaps the most accurate variable thus far is the fact that it is indeed Friday. Flurries began mid morning, transitioned into a mix and have all but vanished among the sporadic gusts now topping out in the 6 – 8 mph range. For those coming or going this weekend, fear not.
Thursday – 3/3/16 – 5:49 p.m. - The political overtones of the season have seemingly spilled into the world of weather as there is now nary a whiff of any sort of Winter Watch as advertised way back yesterday. That said, a Wind Advisory has stepped up and will be in effect until Saturday morning. The other notable change is an adjustment in forecasted snow totals which are now in the 1” – 3” range. Peak winds and any snow of substance look to move in late Friday afternoon. The Nauset School District recently issued a statement claiming that there may be an early dismissal tomorrow which any first year community access meteorologist knows is a clear sign that tomorrow is in fact Friday. I will issue a follow up in 24 hours unless conditions deteriorate ahead of time.
Wednesday – 3/2/16 – 4:42 p.m. - Due in no small part to flurries of emails and texts received in recent weeks expressing hopes that I may be enjoying the spring like weather as of late, a Winter Storm Watch is on tap for Friday. Details are forming while creative departments are no doubt already arguing over a scary and uncommon name to hang on this round. Until that important work is done, we look to be bracing for 4” - 8” of snow accumulation beginning mid day and growing in intensity into Friday evening. Winds are slated to range in the 20 – 30 mph range with gusts peaking at 50. Temperatures look to be in the neighborhood of the upper 20’s to lower 30’s and depending on which side of that scale reality decides to land, we could see a heavy wet snow. I will follow up Thursday evening with further detail.
Thursday – 2/25/16 – 12:03 p.m. - Having just conferred with the National Geological Society where it is confirmed that the earth is in fact back on its axis, I’m calling this one early. As the sun slowly retakes the skies, the moderate breeze is all but a welcoming refresher given temperatures in the low 50’s; all this while the birds are out and competing with the laughter of children… Until next time.
Thursday – 2/25/16 – 8:02 a.m. - Predawn, three wind and severe thunderstorm warnings came in each more ominous than the next promising winds upwards of 70 mph and subsequently advising those living in mobile homes to check their parachutes. These warnings leaned heavily towards "Western Barnstable County." This system, while sizable, is moving underneath us heading out to sea in a northeasterly direction and the initial assumption is that the weather editors may be referencing the West Coast maps used to revise the Cape Cod flood zones. That said, there are pockets heavy rain and gusts that jibe with the now downgraded "Wind Advisory" criteria which consists of sustained gusts in the 20-30 mph with the potential for gusts upwards of 50 mph. These hit and miss pockets are expected to loom over the area throughout the day. Whether the balance of the day proves to be a typical grey day on the Cape or I wake up in Kansas donning curly toed slippers, I will bring closure to this round with a final update end of day.
Tuesday – 2/16/16 – 4:48 p.m. - Blow Me Down - If for no other reason than to let everyone know I'm aware, a high wind warning went into effect at 1:00 p.m. and will run through 10 p.m. this evening. Winds in the 20 - 30 mph range with gusts in the area of 55 - 60 mph should peak over the next couple of hours. The upside is a current temperature of 51 degrees which assures that no one's timbers will shiver. Pockets of heavy rain and an occasional rumble of thunder are also expected and will no doubt keep those optimistic cups well north of half full.
Wednesday – 2/10/16 – 9:12 p.m. - With a number of requests to bump up heat and turn on a few lights this Friday, it can only mean one thing: the coldest day of the year is upon us. While I've been able to bull my way into driveways and down third world access roads, I don't want to create the impression that conditions are conducive to iced tea and a round of lawn darts. Any tracks by man or machine will look like Han Solo dipped in carbonite by Saturday in spite of temperatures rocketing up to the mid 20's from a floor of 5 degrees. Last year's plastic shovel warning is in full effect for Sunday as well whether it's used during the low of 12 or the projected high of 15. Winds will be in the mid 20's for both days and sporadic snow showers are fair warning that any sun will have little impact on the otherwise Ansel Adams like landscapes. If you're making the trip and have even the slightest concern about your driveway, please give me a call, text, email... Have a safe and happy Valentine's Day, Ferris Wheel Day and of course President's Day.
Tuesday – 2/9/16 – 12:53 p.m. - As follow ups continue, I wanted to let everyone know that while outages were remarkably low yesterday, due in large part to our having never satisfied the "Blizzard" criteria, outages were a memory by nightfall. From mid-day yesterday to the present, I would estimate that approximately 50% of kitchen clocks were flashing and in those cases, heat never skipped a beat as the mechanicals came back online. Sample houses: For relative newcomers and competitors alike, I have several houses that are drained and powered down in September/October and during periods of sustained outages, I will use these properties as a bench mark. As of this morning, the standing average temperature was 34 and of course the water bottle in each was 100% fluid. While 34 may seem too close for comfort, bear in mind that these properties aren't coming down from ambient temperatures of [insert your setting here] but have been cold for months. Plowing: There hasn't been a single case of hiking in as compared to the weeks of forced marches last year so as always, don't write a check to the plow guy on my account as much as it is appreciated. Going forward, I feel quite comfortable in wrapping up this round of weather in terms of subsequent dialogue. We have a couple of isolated squalls lined up for tomorrow and Thursday with the possibility of a small storm moving in over the weekend but for now we can snuff the candles and toss the leftovers. Until next time...
Monday – 2/8/16 – 3:41 p.m. - While winds remain strong, albeit diminishing, the snow has become wet enough where it cannot be picked up and blown around while any snow making its way from the top down has appeared to have taken a break. I would estimate we have about 8" on the ground and going forward, blizzard flags are down as the back end of the system while wide is tracking further inland. Snow showers are on tap through midnight as winds continue to dial back into the teens throughout the remainder of the day and evening. With the worst of the winds departing, there are zero outages in Eastham while Orleans weighs in with 1.
Monday – 2/8/16 – 10:41 a.m. - ...and now it's a steady diet of Parcheesi and left over Velveeta as we wait and see. The first flakes fell as advertised; currently we're in a snow globe effect as fine flakes are being pushed around in no particular direction while winds are beginning to pick up and are scheduled to peak by mid afternoon. Although always difficult to tally after blizzard conditions, most of those with official issue windbreakers are standing by the 8" - 12" range for total accumulation. Based on the 1" - 2" we've seen so far, it appears to be notably light than advertised which is good news if it holds. I will plan on circling back between 3 and 4 p.m.
Sunday – 2/7/16 – 4:28 p.m. - A Blizzard Warning is in effect from 4 a.m. through 7 p.m. Monday evening. Earlier forecasts showed a steady diet of snow through the witching hours on Tuesday and the upgrade to Blizzard status is really no more or less based on an adjustment with the winds which are now expected to be in the 30-40 mph range with gusts upwards of 65 mph. Both wind and snow are expected to diminish early evening on Monday with flurries persisting into Tuesday. Actual temperatures will hover around the freezing mark throughout; however, forecasted wind chill values in the mid teens assure there will be no mixing after dawn. 8" - 12" of total accumulation is expected with upwards of 18" possible in pockets particularly closer to the Upper Cape. I appreciate the heads up from those that are here or planning on making landfall as it most certainly tightens up the follow up rounds. If the forecast leans more towards fact than fiction, it probably wouldn't hurt to pull out one can of Spam. That said, we had about two months of this weather in addition to consecutive days of biting, standing temperatures so this is hardly the end of days. Stay tuned...
Saturday – 2/6/16 – 5:11 p.m. - All ye weather jinxers rejoice! A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Given the last round, I'm not yet compelled to rule out a UV warning but we'll play it by ear. This wait and see event calls for 4 - 7" to fall Monday into Monday evening with winds departing from a sustained 20 - 30 mph range to gust upwards of 45 on occasion. Joining the party, as a byproduct of high tide timing late Monday morning through mid-day is a coastal flood watch. I will plan on tightening up the details in 24 hours.
Saturday – 2/6/16 – 8:32 a.m. - If you forecast in the same manner as reeling off the possible side effects for the latest and greatest prescription med, you're bound to find some semblance of accuracy at some point. The final tally worked out to approximately 6" of heavy wet snow which stopped falling around 7:30 p.m. on Friday. The sun is blazing and temperatures in the upper 20's look to climb north of the freezing mark later this morning. Knowing you all the way I do, I feel quite comfortable in claiming that the results of this particular round of weather do in fact have something for everyone; its beautiful, a pain in the *@#, majestic and some may even be moved to knock out a sonnet. All in all, its a garden variety February morning on Cape Cod.
Friday – 2/5/16 – 3:44 p.m. - Like Charlie Brown kicking a football, within hours of the expiration of the Advisory, formally known as the Watch and pushed ahead 8 hours, a couple of inches of heavy wet snow fell this afternoon. The term mix is scheduled to be replaced by snow after four which will then be upgraded to heavy snow between 5 and 7 p.m. this evening before departing leaving behind temperatures in the upper 20’s that look to struggle to get into the lower 30’s throughout Saturday. Despite little wind and hardly a blockbuster, I suspect the weight in the trees will create limited and scattered outages throughout the afternoon and evening. Stay tuned…
Friday – 2/5/17 – 7:08 a.m. - With a current temperature of 41 under moderate to heavy rain, its little wonder the Winter Storm Watch has been revised to an Advisory that will remain in effect until 3 p.m. today. If you were saving anything for a rainy day, today may be a good time to break it out. The prophets remain optimistic that current conditions will deteriorate throughout the day where heavy rains are now expected to change over to a mix as temperatures drop to the low 30's into the early evening. Should conditions worsen by 5 p.m., I will post an additional follow up. That said, it appears as though the Spam and candles can keep for now.
Wednesday – 2/3/16 – 4:01 p.m. - A Winter Storm Watch is in effect beginning late Thursday evening and running through late Friday afternoon. The bipolar temperatures look to peak around 50 on Thursday and bottoming out at 30 before climbing into the upper 30’s by late day Friday. While there appears to be a 100% chance of precipitation, the 4” – 6” speculated to fall early Friday look to favor the mid to upper Cape area. That said, in meteorology terms, we are still 2 dog years away from the actual “event” which means there remains an outside chance of record breaking high temperatures. Aside from reacting to an issued watch, I understand a number of you are making the trek this way this weekend so for now, this watch leans more towards a heads up.
Sunday – 1/24/16 – 9:22 a.m. - The sun actually made an appearance this morning and if any sputtering snow found its way to the ground since the last transmission it’s hidden somewhere in the 5” – 6” of wet pan caked snow we have on the ground. As I understand it, Harwich logged in at 14 ½” and DC finds itself unable to wiggle out of its most recent cover up but here on our small scratch of land, the winds have diminished and there is little if any snow remaining in the trees. Current outages have Orleans at 21 and Eastham down to 6. As always, inadvertent outages based on line work from grid to grid may knock an otherwise powered up property off line; in short, it is not atypical for a property that never lost power to lose it after the weather has passed. The flood warning remains in effect from 10 a.m. – 2 p.m. today and of course properties in low lying and of course water front areas will see an uptick in follow ups. Given the current conditions and dwindling outages, this will be the last blanket update and any issues going forward will be addressed directly as needed.
Saturday – 1/23/16 – 10:46 p.m. - …key phrase being “…and/or blowing snow” as the actual “falling” part of the equation has taken a break or is in fact sliding off the coast just beneath us as the popular tracks suggest. Winds persist while some outlets are now projecting 12” – 18” of total snow accumulations leading me to believe that the chief meteorologist is an avid fisherman or had too many Chardonnays’ at dinner for in these parts, we appear to have picked up approximately 6” of heavy snow. Currently, Orleans is showing 155 outages while Eastham is down to 24 from approximately 1,200 earlier this evening. Follow ups will begin in the morning and with temperatures hovering in the low 30’s and winds diminishing throughout the day on Sunday; we’re in good shape time-wise.
Saturday – 1/23/16 – 4:16 p.m. - A blizzard warning has been issued and will run through 1 a.m. Sunday. Blizzard status is met when sustained or frequent wind gusts over 35 mph are expected with notable falling and/or blowing snow. In short, very little has changed save for a scarier description.
Saturday – 1/23/16 – 2:14 p.m. - A blowing sleet, which began about an hour ago, has since changed to a fine horizontal snow thanks to winds in the low to mid 30 mph range. While the warnings remain and the times have not been adjusted, the projected accumulations have been revised to 8” – 10”. Various models show the track close enough to the coast to reach out and touch. Temperatures look to hold in the middle 30’s although wind chills range from the teens to 20’s which is a constant through tomorrow evening. Wind speeds should taper off from the middles 30’s to the single digits throughout the day Sunday. Stay tuned…
Friday – 1/22/16 – 5:02 p.m. - A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from Saturday morning at 4 a.m. through Sunday morning at 7 a.m.. A Winter Storm Watch, as we know, implies 6”+ snow is expected to fall in a 12 hour period or 8 inches in a 24 hour span. A Winter Storm Warning uses the same parameters as the Watch yet this time the authors of the data are wicked sure the forecast is accurate. In addition, and most often a byproduct of such weather, are high wind and coastal flood warnings. The wind warning is up from 10 a.m. Saturday through 10 a.m. Sunday where winds in the 30-40 mph range are expected with gusts upwards of 50; quick aside, we’ve seen these conditions twice this season. The coastal flood warning has become the little brother always tagging along with the crowd and joins the party based simply on the timing of the tides; this timing is speculated to occur late Sunday morning so we can cross that bridge when we get to it unless of course it’s flooded. With a revised 6” – 10” of snowfall expected, the missing variable is the temperature as this will decide whether or not we’re in for a wet, heavy snow or something on the lighter side which diminishes the likelihood of power outages. On that score, Ever Source has bumped up its quality points in recent years with a notably quicker response and a closer eye on the overall power line tree relationships; and here everyone was grumbling over a blind-side 37% rate hike. In either event, temps look to move far enough above the freezing mark which would make the potential for any power/freeze up issues quite remote. If you are here or heading here: 1. When you see clusters of local plows gathering in package store parking lots, you have a 2-3 hour window before the first flakes arrive; 2. If you have natural gas as a heat source and arrive post snow fall, take the time to check your exhaust and make sure it’s not covered with a drift.
Friday – 1/22/16 – 6:02 a.m. - Its confirmed. It will in fact snow again this Winter. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday morning and not unlike most notable weather in our area this, one is wildly speculative across a myriad of models and of course subject to the ocean effect. Popular tracks show the path curling off the coast just south of the Cape while others put us on the leading edge. In any event, new age weather terminology, barreling, historic, crippling, catastrophic, etc appear to be dedicated to the mid Atlantic states thus far. Snow or mixed precipitation looks to begin mid day Saturday with temperatures in the low to mid 30’s with winds in the upper 20’s. Heading into Sunday, temperatures look to climb towards the low 40’s for Monday with should make short work of the speculated 6” of accumulation. A follow up will be issued mid to late afternoon Saturday.
Sunday – 1/17/16 – 6:58 p.m. - A Winter Weather Advisory is set to kick off at 7 p.m. and will remain in effect until 10 a.m. Monday. Snow accumulations of 2”-4” are expected. Temperatures hover around freezing by Monday morning where they slowly decline into the mid 20’s throughout the day while winds increase into early evening. I’m confident that there will be no need to scavenge for that cheese and sausage sampler that may have found its way into Christmas stockings though I will follow up should conditions prove otherwise. On October 1st, following a would be catastrophic/named storm [or “event” as it were] that barely mustered the strength to snuff out a wet Citronella candle; I took the opportunity to issue a lengthy check-down list of preventative measures heading into the off-season. Along with battery operated thermostat downfalls, fuel delivery protocols and garden variety hit or miss gadgets was a short section on maintenance. While I have never marketed from a perspective of fear, I feel compelled to address an unprecedented number of “no heat” issues as of late; specifically, 23 since January 1. The causes range wildly from bad boards to valves and failed fittings to silly AA batteries. In addition to these 23 events, incidentally 4 more than all of last year combined, were a half dozen or so items that were picked up and rectified ahead of impending failure. Most mechanical systems are, or should be, serviced annually. If a year has come and gone, I would encourage anyone that is not drained down to have their burner tech or oil provider review their system. If you do not have a dedicated service company and would like to have your system reviewed, please let me know and I’ll set it up.
Monday – 1/4/16 – 5:58 a.m. - We’ve arrived at that time honored rite of passage where the first Conditions update of the year is issued. For relative newcomers, these updates are delivered during periods of adverse weather to include any and all advisories and warnings that are handed down by the national weather prophets. In recent years, in the relentless pursuit of increased ratings, enhanced sensationalism and general chaos, weather celebrities and even a handful of actual meteorologists have taken to naming every passing cloud. For our purposes, we’ll stick to what is actually occurring and go from there. A winter weather advisory is in effect from 11 a.m. today through 7 a.m. Tuesday. Advisories are issued when snow conditions are expect to be reasonably certain yet light; in this case, 2” – 4” is scheduled to fall as a system rolls over the Cape on its way south. Winds are forecasted to be in the range of 10 – 25 mph range with gusts topping out at 35 while temperatures look to hover between 24 and 35. In essence, we’re looking at a garden variety winter day on the Cape in spite of the feigned shivering and utter dismay most likely exhibited by your local weather specialist. Happy New Year!
Sunday – 10/18/15 – 9:16 a.m. - A freeze warning has been posted for Barnstable County for Monday from 2 a.m. – 9 a.m.. While temperatures are forecasted to fall into the low to middle 20’s during this window, the areas in question are primarily the mid to upper Cape and most certainly further inland. During my appointed rounds I’ve noticed several outdoor showers and hose bibs that while turned off were not completely drained. While the forecast and projected window of time certainly won’t cast us back to the ice age, if anyone, particularly those who do not start up until November and beyond, has a concern, please touch base and I will add you to the Sunday rundown.
Friday – 10/2/15 – 6:04 p.m. - For anyone keeping tabs on Joaquin, the Euro model appears to have been spot on yet again as the system looks to diminish and flame out somewhere in the area of 300-400 miles off the beach by the time it makes it this far north. We saw a steady diet of mist to moderate rain throughout the day that persists amongst winds in the low to mid 20 mph range with occasional gusts over 30 mph. That said, if you’re watching the news and happen to look out the window here on the Cape, you may wonder whether or not you’re on the same planet but I assure you that even Brian Williams would take pause in glorifying the conditions on the ground. A wind advisory will remain in effect until 11 a.m. tomorrow as coastal flood advisories come and go quite literally with the high tide cycles. The rain looks to subside late tomorrow afternoon while winds slowly diminish through Monday. There are no power issues on the board.
Thursday – 10/1/15 – 3:51 p.m. - Joaquin: Spaghetti Plots [from the Latin: too early to tell] has the now category 4 hurricane trending in every conceivable direction except backwards. While it remains to be seen whether or not the system makes U.S. landfall or curls east as the most reliable [Euro] model indicates, I wanted to give everyone a glimpse of what is happening now. Yesterday we received about 1 ¼” of much needed rain while wind gusts peaked in the low 40 mph range. Today we’ve seen light hit and miss showers while the gusts have been diminished by half lending us a garden variety wicked bad beach day which appears to be the standard through the beginning of next week. If anyone who is not on a watch schedule for October has any questions or concerns, please feel free to touch base. For those on an October schedule, rest assured that no fee storm follow ups will be conducted as needed. Existing customer or otherwise, to receive these updates via email, simply click the subscription bar above and enter your preferred email address; you may opt out at your discretion.
Wednesday – 7/1/15 – 12:33 a.m. - The sun is attempting a comeback and by all indications, there are no reports of witches found under flying houses. We had a steady diet of torrential rain that almost warranted collecting wildlife two-by-two but other than that, all is well. For more recent customers, I will always react to watches and warnings as more often than not there is a touch of sensationalism that comes with adverse weather which only grows in drama the further away its reported. Hit and miss showers are on tap for the balance of the day.
Wednesday – 7/1/15 – 10:19 a.m. - Moderate rain is falling as a system moving NE looks to be moments away. Severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings issued earlier this morning have expired on paper as it appears as though we’re still waiting. Within the past hour, areas on the upper and mid Cape have reported flash floods, wind gusts that jibe with the predicted 45 mph projections and a couple of water funnels thrown in for good measure. Based on most recent models, it appears as though this cell may continue to track NE across the bay and based on the current speed of the system, we should show improvement in a matter of hours.
Wednesday – 6/24/15 – 5:59 a.m. - Shortly after 10 p.m. the grand finale rolled across the Upper Cape leaving upwards of 3000 homes and businesses without power. From there the system moved underneath us staying off the coast offering a half hearted rumble of thunder with just enough wind to put out a Citronella candle. The sun is up and all is well.
Tuesday – 6/23/15 – 5:31 p.m. - A tornado watch is in effect for Southeastern MA to include Barnstable County to include “the cities of Chatham…Falmouth… Nantucket…Provincetown and Vineyard Haven. The watch, posted an hour ago, is in effect until 11 p.m. this evening. Showers are hit and miss in the coming hours but all but a certainty later on tonight along with scattered thunderstorms. The general consensus amongst the myriad of radars shows significant bands moving through around 7:30 and 10 p.m.. Stay tuned...
Sunday – 6/21/15 – 10:07 a.m. - As the final gasp of tropical depression Bill moves across the region, the weather prophets have us under a flood watch until 2 p.m. where anywhere from 1”-2” of rain may fall. Earlier this morning we experienced approximately 20 minutes of heavy driving rain and no doubt, wind driven weather off the water isn't exclusive to snow. Thunderstorms are also on tap pushed by what is claimed to be wind gusts upwards of 45 mph. We have yet to see a note worthy gust so for now it’s simply raining “wicked h-ah-d.” There are no outages to report and I don't believe we'll see any going forward. Happy Father’s Day!
Thursday – 3/28/15 – 5:18 p.m. - Severe thunder storms are forecasted for later this evening. With rain slated to begin around 7 p.m., the heaviest rain and thunder will peak around the 11 p.m. hour with a chance of hail mixed in for good measure on the back of winds in the 20 mph range with gusts topping out in the mid 30 mph range. Various reports call for this system out of Newport to move over the Upper Cape and across the bay yet most Doppler images look like spilled paint. Should this storm track east there is a moderate chance of outages although temperatures look to remain in the mid 40’s as the rains diminish by Friday morning.
Wednesday – 3/18/15 – 6:36 a.m. - For anyone keeping score at home, we are under a wind advisory which runs through 5 p.m. this evening. Sustained winds in the 20 – 30 mph range will persist throughout the day with gusts topping out at 55. Current temperatures in the middle 20’s will slide down into the upper teens overnight as we continue to ride the thaw and freeze wave. There are no reported outages at this time.
Thursday – 3/5/15 – 4:08 p.m. - If you’ve ever watched a kid toil away for hours under the hot sun crafting a replica of Windsor Castle out of wet sand, seaweed, shells and select tourist debris as accent pieces only to see the leading edge of high tide act as Mother Nature’s Etch-A-Sketch you may appreciate how today’s 5” – 6”, and counting, accumulation of heavy wet snow has all but put us at square one. What began as a Watch then turned to an Advisory at some point today evolved into a Warning yet even the most hardened meteorologist had the resolve to resist issuing a tanning index. Once liberated, trees and power lines are again loaded up with snow as temperatures continue to dip towards the teens. In terms of wind, there’s a reasonably good chance of being able to light a candle on the beach. The high/low range remains between the teens and 20’s until Saturday where we cap out at the freezing mark. Zero outages have been reported and there is no cause to expect any as the snow moves off slowly through this evening. In regards to accessibility, if you were plowed two weeks ago, you are now officially taking someone’s word for it. Depending on drifting conditions, the garden variety yard is adorned with 18” – 30” of hard packed snow that barley leaves a footprint. We have an entirely new group of oil and propane dependent homes that will need to be liberated sooner than later and anyone approaching critical mass has been contacted directly and the go forward efforts are in the works. While this is not a drifting snow, anyone coming out that uses natural gas or propane is encouraged to check their vents after of course you’ve looked at your driveway and exclaimed “wow he was right; I didn’t think it was this bad!” All in all it’s more to shovel, more to plow and more to climb. Shifting gears, I was recently made aware of a daytime break in on Shurtleff Rd in Eastham. For those in the immediate area, cursory follow ups were made and all is well. If you have friends or family in the area who may wish to have a courtesy trip made, please feel free to reach out.
Wednesday – 3/4/15 – 11:26 p.m. - The Winter Watch was called off earlier today and with the Winter Advisory in place, we are now forecasted to receive upwards of 6” of snow by the early Thursday afternoon. No doubt a few beads missing from yesterday’s abacus. Currently we’re seeing a fairly moderate rainfall which looks to change over to freezing rain within the next two hours as temperatures move back down the dial to the middle 20’s where we’ll sit with a steady diet of snow by the end of business tomorrow. From here, we are pin balling between the teens and 20’s until Saturday making today’s light thaw and compaction the new grade waiting on the next round of accumulation. For those silver lining fanatics, winds will be all but a non factor laboring to see double digit speeds.
Tuesday – 3/3/15 – 5:59 p.m. - The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 10 a.m. Wednesday at which time an intermission to replenish Spam, powdered milk and perhaps a carton of Prozac will run through 7 p.m.. From here, we kick off a Winter Weather Watch which will be active through 7 p.m. Thursday. At the head of the Watch window, temperatures are forecasted to be in the middle 30 degree range before slowly sliding into the mid 20's after midnight where it looks to stay for the foreseeable future. The Watch is of most interest. While the professionals weather analysts are calling for 1" - 3" on the back end of the rain [i.e. the Watch window], we know by definition, reiterated at nauseam this year, that the criteria for a Watch is when there is the potential for 6"+ in a 12 hour period or 8"+ in 24 hours which makes this volatile cocktail the year's first potential bi-polar vortex. I'll plan on circling back in 24 hours with an update on the impact of the snow to rain affair as well as any adjustments that may have been made going forward.
Monday – 3/2/15 – 8:38 p.m. - A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 3 p.m. Tuesday through 10 a.m. Wednesday. While the standard 2” - 3” of accumulation is expected before changing over to sleet and freezing rain, this round brings the season’s first bout of ice accretion which is a cool way to say build up with more syllables. Temperatures look to peak at 40 degrees on Wednesday where one may begin to develop an accretion of joy, a euphoria which may be short lived as the sub freezing range of teens to lower 30’s slide back in with yet an additional 1” - 3” of snow expected on Thursday. As an aside, the good folks who drafted the 2015 Farmer’s Almanac not only knocked it out of the park but the ball itself has yet to land. Shorty after its issue one particular weather-head with NOAA quipped that he and his fellow experts saw no indication of any such winter. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/brutal-winter-almanac-could-be-wrong-scientists-say/ Unfounded arrogance, often times woven into a sense of hype not seen since Geraldo opened Capone’s vault, creates a frustration accretion within that can only be quelled through letting you know that it’s simply cold and snowy. That, with a dash of sarcasm, seems to keep the pros honest and us simple folk amused. Spring is coming...
Monday – 3/2/15 – 6:26 a.m. - We picked up a tick north of 3” during the overnight and early morning hours and as the earth finds its way back on its axis, temperatures look to peak to about 37 degrees at high noon setting up conditions for yet another layer of powder to compact and freeze. The balance of the week appears to be a case of death by a thousand paper cuts as there looks to be several brief appearances of isolated pockets of snow and mixed precipitation with a steady diet of sub freezing temperatures save for Wednesday where signs of spring may be delivered via a 40 degree high before dipping back down into the 20’s with the possibility of accumulating snow.
Saturday – 2/28/15 – 3:54 p.m. - No need to reset the needle; this broken record is spinning by design. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning where 4” – 8” is expected. Temperatures are expected to climb to the freezing mark during the overnight which enables the prophets to also call for the chance of freezing rain to mix in at times. I’ve taken a couple of calls this week in regards to weather conditions and initially wrote it off as separation anxiety from the updates but I do understand given the circumstances. As advertised, we picked up 5” last Tuesday and Wednesday yet the winds remained calm and temperatures have remained steady in the mid 20 degree range. Following Wednesday’s contribution, we saw a handful of isolated squalls which left a dusting to an inch on a couple of occasions. In turn, the cold temperatures solidify accumulations from the past month while creating a powder amongst every flake to follow. Everyone flush with oil when this mini-series began is now joining the ranks of those who had been required to liberate driveways; driveways that now look as though they were never touched. At this stage, approximately half the Nauset Management flock is still being hiked into and ironically, with dry secondary roads, a number of properties that are being accessed from the front bumper, to the hood then up on top of the plow berm have been commuted to Saturday checks as it has simply become a hazard or hindrance for others to have a vehicle in the street among routine traffic flow. In regards to those “thirdary” or private dirt roads, imagine driving the wrong way down Commercial Street in P-Town during the Blessing Of The Fleet. While I’d hold off on cancelling any June rentals, we have one day forecasted over the next 10 that has a notable high above the freezing mark so the brief thaw to ice process looks to continue for at least the short term.
Tuesday – 2/24/15 – 10:12 a.m. - While claiming that a Winter Weather Advisory has been posted is not unlike telling you that a one-legged duck swims in a circle, here we are. The Advisory runs from 10 p.m. this evening through 7 a.m. Wednesday where 3” - 5” of accumulation is expected. Unless Mother Nature drops a “1” in front of either number, there is no cause for a follow up as winds will struggle to reach the 10 mph mark.
Saturday – 2/21/15 – 7:33 a.m. - We’re under a Winter Weather Advisory from 1 p.m. today through 1 p.m. Sunday. Our current temperature is 6 and that number should climb steadily to the freezing mark, or beach day status depending on how you look at it. Temperatures should cap out in the upper 30’s mid day tomorrow with rain on tap during the otherwise Winter Weather Advisory window. I’ve had a couple of inquiries in regards to snow and ice on rooftops and we simply don’t have the volume seen over the bridge where leaks and collapses are becoming commonplace. I have little doubt that should the forecast hold, any remaining rooftop snow will be a foregone conclusion. Beyond tomorrow’s tropical reprieve, we will once again dip into temperatures in the middle 20’s for the start of the week which quite obviously means any melting realized this weekend will ice over. Currently, just about any home that hasn’t required an oil delivery is still being accessed from the street. With a pocket of thawing last week where slush was plowed at nauseam, this simply locked in driveways and fortified previous plow berms. In fact, those who were plowed at the head of these storms is quite simply back to square one. Cutting in a garden variety car’s length and width is running around $ 100.00 which believe it or not is a bargain. Having walked in and around almost every home for a month or so, there is little doubt I’m the wrong guy to quibble with over what these guys are getting. We’re down to two houses on life support waiting on offensive lead times from various oil vendors. When we find ourselves in calmer waters I will circle back to the oil issues going forward assuming there will be a summer to jam in between seasons. This past week saw a large uptick in rotating back to more of a routine for most and with that the stories begin to surface. We’ve seen water main breaks, oddly enough a good number of locals in place who incurred freeze ups and of course the off Cape segment who continues to have bad news delivered via subcontractors, vendors or neighbors. With all but a handful losing power for various durations at one point or another, in spite of the preparation and endless follow ups and hitting the 100 gallon mark on hand delivered fuel, I am pleasantly stunned as to how we landed.
Wednesday – 2/18/15 – 5:31 p.m. - We’re done. While hopelessly superstitious, I’ve lost count of follow ups and mid day today, we rotated back into a structured schedule and by all indications, we’ve come out the other side. The remaining business at hand includes monitoring what is now a handful of oil dependent customers that are being liberated as supply diminishes to include three who are receiving a steady diet of fuel carried in by hand to stem that tide for what are four and five day lead times for delivery in addition to mitigating access to driveways if not secondary roads. Anyone with a quarter tank of fuel or less has been directly contacted and we’ll continue to weigh any projected thaw with supply and of course plowing for those next in line. While we have hit or miss weather on tap for the weekend, there’s still time to take a moment to tip a hat. While I receive the lion’s share of back slaps quarterbacking the talent around me, there is no doubt that without the consistent, immediate and most certainly repeated response time and time again from Richard at Snows, Jim and his crew at McDonnell Mechanical, Scott Dugas Plumbing, Peter at LaBranche Landscaping, Will Sullivan of Sullivan Landscaping and Josh Alexander rounding out the snow remediation roster, there is little doubt that more than a handful would have most certainly run up on the rocks two or three rounds ago. On a much lighter note, and as always, I greatly appreciate the well wishes, offers to tack on February’s invoice and one marriage proposal. From those who have been with me since the beginning to those who jumped on board somewhere in between the +/- month long grind, my appreciation for your faith and trust and is immense. It is my sincere hope that we might give this forum a break for the foreseeable future.
Monday – 2/16/15 – 7:22 p.m. - We are under a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 a.m. through 6 p.m. tomorrow which at this point is little surprise. Numbers vary from 3”-5” to 6”-8” but again this is not unlike negotiating one last piece of candy with a 6 year old on Halloween. As we eat it, wind chills dipping down to sub zero numbers will settle in this evening and if there is a silver lining to be had, it is the certainty that any snowfall will be incredibly light not unlike what we contended with today. Everyone has power and through the most recent cycle, everyone has heat. #16 suffered an air bound gravity fed oil tank which was picked up in time to isolate the issue to a second floor shower valve that had split as a result of an interior temperature of 26 degrees. Before scrambling to find your number, the owners have been contacted several times throughout the day and again, the heat is back online. In this particular case, the house never lost power and air bound boilers aren’t predisposed to absurd temperatures and not unlike #16, several requests have come in to increase the frequency of checks. To be certain, the protocol at this stage is to simply grind through the route and re-start at the beginning yet typically, no fee follow ups normally are not predicated on temperatures below freezing. With weather moving in tomorrow and a system no one is quite ready to discuss in detail teed up for the coming weekend this unprecedented cycle will continue for the foreseeable future as we look to peak at 33 Saturday and a warm tease of 38 on Sunday.
Monday – 2/16/15 – 7:52 a.m. - The sun is currently battling for space with patches of passing clouds and the standing temperature of 7 degrees with wind chills weighing in at -16 support the wind chill warning that will remain in place for the next several hours as temperatures work their way into the middle teens. Although wind chills will eventually match the standing temps by Tuesday morning, a smaller, gentler round of snow looks to move in and set up camp for most of Tuesday where a novelty accumulation of 3”- 6” is expected as temperatures rocket up to the upper 20’s. As we stand, there are no special names, warnings or plans to adorn 100 lb weather editors in network fleece and tether them to telephone poles at the beach. Conversely, I understand that many are considering heading this way as it is school vacation week so it is merely a heads up. Follow ups continue on the heels of yesterday’s storm and as mentioned, save for the wind chill numbers, this blizzard packed less of a punch than its predecessor and produced about half the peak outages.
Sunday – 2/15/15 – 2:23 p.m. - For those who may recall that moment in history where Brian Williams galvanized his conquering Everest with Sir Edmund Hilary through grainy black and whites and almost losing three fingers to frostbite while grappling with an antiquated tripod, frozen shutter and frosted lenses, this latest event was nothing like that. With the swirling, blowing and actual falling snow, it is difficult to determine the total accumulations but I would put it in the 6”-8” range and no doubt deeper moving towards the bridge. Winds currently in the upper 30 mph range will slowly diminish heading into this evening as the current temperatures in the 20’s will slowly fall through the teens reaching single digits overnight with wind chills in the -2 - -15 degree range. Outages have moved up and down throughout the day and currently Orleans is reporting 13 and Eastham 3. No doubt follow ups will begin as if they ever stopped. At first blush it’s apparent that this round pulled up short in regards to the first blizzard and in fact we presently have flashes of sunshine.
Sunday – 2/15/15 – 7:44 a.m. - So far it appears as though this system is camped out north of us as we have approximately 5” on the ground with gusts in the upper 30 mph range. Two large bands are sitting over Boston and the Upper Cape as we remain under Blizzard Warning forecasts. Currently there are no reported outages. If you’re here, people are being asked to stay off the road unless you’re a plow driver or professional camera crew van driver. Stay tuned…
Friday – 2/13/15 – 9:07 p.m. - No surprise; several hours ago both the Blizzard and Flood Watches were upgraded to Warnings. The window for the Blizzard portion of this round has been adjusted and kicks off Saturday at 7 p.m. and ending on Sunday at 11 a.m... The Flood window now runs from 6 a.m. to 11 a.m. on Sunday. Winds out of the north at 30-40 mph will bring the potential for gusts upwards of 75 mph. The most popular range for snowfall projections is in the 8”-10” range. Beyond watch to warning and the tweaks in the timeline, very little has changed which brings me to reinforcing the present conditions. The average untouched patch of ground is 12”-18” deep with the top layer crusted over to the extent that it can support body weight; beneath this crust and atop 4”-8” of ice is a coarse snow. The “touched,” or plow impacted snow is an entirely different animal. These are virtual concrete barriers composed of a culmination of snow, slush, dirt and ice that run about 2’-3’ tall. Understanding that many are heading this way, while a few are currently swimming against the tide to dodge the hit, these aren’t the typical hot chocolate/find a hill gray days of winter. Conversely, these certainly aren’t the end of days either. This impending round has all the same teeth as the one that kicked off this stretch save for duration and accumulation which is a tick less. The big variable this go around are current conditions combined with the projected numbers will result in a mess to be kind. Finally, save for a blink of an eye on Wednesday when temperatures hit 33, we’re below freezing for the next ten days with a number of slots showing single digits which means what we have and what we get aren’t going anywhere except up. While this is shaping up as a virtual do over, we’re just as prepared and will no doubt come out the other side. Everyone dependent on delivered fuel, oil and propane, is in fine shape. That said, with lower temperatures slated for a longer duration, mitigating future deliveries will continue to be case-by-case.
Friday – 2/13/15 – 6:23 a.m. - Realizing several of you are on the fence in regards to heading this way I wanted to extend a heads up now rather than wait until this afternoon. A Blizzard Watch is up and runs from 7 p.m. Saturday through 7 p.m. Sunday. In addition, a Coastal Flood Watch in place for Sunday between 4 a.m. and 1 p.m... We picked up 1”-2” of snow overnight and currently temperatures look to remain in the teens throughout the day with wind chills averaging around zero. All things being equal, we’re in a bit of a holding pattern until mid afternoon Saturday which is to say that while bitterly cold there is an otherwise clear window of time to string up provisions out of reach of bears, dig out root cellars and head into town for lamp oil. By all indications, the teeth of this storm in terms of snowfall, peak early morning Sunday although snowfall in general is expected to occur throughout the Blizzard Watch window. Anyone still on board with making the trip should plan an exit strategy around an assumed 10”-12+” of additional accumulation by the end of business Sunday. The ongoing focus at this point remains on those who rely on oil as I’ve been moving the chess pieces around the board and liberating those driveways for several weeks now on an as needed basis. Stay tuned…
Thursday – 2/12/15 – 6:26 a.m. - Thursday and Friday are here and details are coming into focus. A Winter Weather Advisory is up and runs from 1 p.m. this afternoon through 7 a.m. tomorrow morning. This go around, the Cape is looking at 2”-4” overnight while those over the bridge look to get a bit of a reprieve. Temperatures are currently in the mid 20’s and those numbers look to remain constant through tomorrow morning where we dip into the lower teens with wind chill factors ranging in the single digits above and below zero. Woven into the riveting analysis, weather narrators are advising anyone making a run for the Cape this weekend to wear a hat. While I’ll defer to them in regards to the common sense items, I would strongly advise confirming the conditions of your driveway before making the trip. The larger and looming issue comes into play Saturday afternoon and early evening where early indications show a set up for potential blizzard conditions which may adorn the landscape with an additional 6”-12” of snow as bitter temperatures and wind chills persist. For well over a week now, I’ve been conducting the orchestra of Bobcats, snow blowers, front end loaders, fuel trucks and HVAC techs as needed predicated primarily on low fuel levels. Gratuitous plowing may be wedged into the mix but I feel compelled to stress that unless or until you have an access emergency, the cost and effort associated with what has essentially become ice remediation is notable. For anyone coming out this weekend, you may want to throw a couple loaves of bread on the dog sled as the traditional Sunday departure trek may be impacted. I will plan on following up Friday afternoon as the back end of this round come into view.
Tuesday – 2/10/15 – 08:11 a.m. - We saw a fairly consistent albeit fine/wet snow for most of Monday which topped out at around an inch of total accumulation in and around convoys of plows transferring slush from one driveway to the next. The overnight had been advertised as hit or miss in regards to additional snowfall and for those that have taken on the persona of Jack Nicholson from The Shining, I’m happy to report this particular system was a non factor in our immediate area. Using schools as a barometer in regards to snow band tracking, Plymouth is closed, Barnstable has a two hour delay and Nauset is business as usual. As indicated by news networks transitioning over to a two person weather team format rather than using the standard one-man doomsday preacher, Thursday and Friday may be sending two separate systems our way. This current issue at hand is monitoring and reacting to oil levels in regards to unplowed driveways. Liberating driveways under these conditions is not a cost friendly exercise and among the few properties that were dwindling, each has been addressed case-by-case while holding out for pockets of melting for those who have a ways to go. Regardless of what Thursday and Friday may bring in terms of snowfall [currently speculated to be in the area of 4"-8"], temperatures will begin to dip Wednesday evening setting up several days of highs in the single digits and teens with lows in the single sub zero range. Over the past two days, anyone relying on oil is confirmed as having a comfortable supply going forward. On the low end, I anticipate a two week window given the conditions and similar to last week, the access issue will be approached on a case-by-case basis. For all the temperature tweaking, sustained outages, follow ups and burner flame outs over the past few weeks, I’m pleased to report that all Nauset Management customers pulled through incident free and I am most appreciative of everyone’s trust and patience. Finally, I realize that the coverage over the bridge projects a need for air dropped supplies and Sherpa's and no doubt they have endured a significant amount of snow in a short period of time. That said, I cannot overemphasize the definition and impacts created through band lines and ocean effect snow from town-to-town let alone 60-90 miles away. We’ve realized sufficient pockets of melting over the past two weeks which of course create poor driving conditions but on the upside, these breaks have diminished, if not eliminated concerns over snow loads on rooftops or stressed limbs and branches.
Saturday – 2/7/15 – 11:06 p.m. - Brian Williams couldn’t dream this up. A winter storm watch is in effect from 7 a.m. Sunday through 1 a.m. Tuesday. Again, “watch,” Latin for not sure yet, is a safe bet as temperatures look to remain consistent in the mid 30’s throughout the watch window with “feels like” temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s. Rain and sleet look to rule the day Sunday while the heaviest snow amongst the projected 4”-8” is scheduled to fall late Sunday into early Monday. Northeast winds pick up Sunday afternoon and continue through Monday in the 10-20 mph range with gusts up to 45. As always, I’ll respond to a watch or warning but comparatively speaking, this appears to be a mediocre beach day. That said, I understand there are several of you on Cape this weekend that may be making the trek back in sloppy weather; be safe.
Sunday – 2/1/15 – 8:09 a.m. - A winter storm warning has been posted and will run from 9 p.m. Sunday through 1 a.m. Tuesday and the projected weather during this window is truly a stretch in terms of achieving the criteria for a warning. Wind certainly won’t come close which leaves us with snow projected to be in the area of 5”-8”. Our window of snow looks to begin around 1 a.m. Monday morning where snow showers evolve into a few hours of heavy snow ending around 9 a.m. as temperatures climb into the upper 30’s kicked off with a brief period of heavy rain. Mid day temperatures hold above freezing during consistent moderate rain throughout late afternoon as we plunge back down to the teens and 20’s with snow showers likely. I don’t believe this rollercoaster system warrants a panic run on Spam and water purification tablets but I do expect a prolonged push and shove with ice and general access. The “Nauset Management Travel Advisory” remains in effect. There are a notable number of properties that would no doubt require heavy equipment to liberate driveways. While this may be coordinated it is costly and the wait time is anywhere from 2-3 days. I’ve cashed in a little magic in cases where fuel levels were dwindling but I continue to suggest weighing the intent of the trip before writing the check.